Landsvirki Bjarna Benediktssonar, formanns Sjálfstæðisflokksins

24. mars 2011.

Bjarni Benediktsson, formaður Sjálfstæðisflokksins:

"Niðurstaðan gæti orðið sú að menn standi frammi fyrir margfaldri skuldbindingu þegar borið er saman við samningana“, segir Bjarni um dómstólaleiðina í viðtali við Frjálsa verslun í febrúar 2011. Bjarni segir jafnframt: „Þess utan tel ég það markmið í sjálfu sér að leysa ágreining með samkomulagi." | hér |

24. mars 2011.

Hörður Árnarson, forstjóri Landsvirkjunar:

"Samþykki þjóðin hins vegar samninginn er líklegast að horfum verði breytt úr neikvæðum í stöðugar. Hörður segir að Landsvirkjun muni því bíða eftir niðurstöðu þjóðaratkvæðagreiðslunnar áður en dregið verði á þessi lán." | hér |

 

 

Fimmtudagur, 14. febrúar 2013

 

TEXT - Fitch raises Iceland's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating

 

Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:17pm EST

Feb 14 - Fitch Ratings has upgraded Iceland's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BBB' from 'BBB-' and affirmed its Long-term local currency IDR at 'BBB+'. The agency has affirmed the Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F3' and upgraded the Country Ceiling to 'BBB' from 'BBB-'.  The Outlooks on the Long-term IDRs are Stable.

 

KEY RATING DRIVERS

 

The upgrade reflects the impressive progress Iceland continues to make in  recovering from the financial crisis of 2008-09. The economy has continued to  grow, notwithstanding developments in the eurozone; fiscal consolidation has  remained on track and public debt/GDP has started to fall; financial sector  restructuring and deleveraging are well-advanced; and the resolution of Icesave  in January has removed a material contingent liability for public finances and  brought normalisation with external creditors a step closer.

 

The Icelandic economy has displayed the ability to adjust and recover at a time  when many countries with close links to Europe have stumbled in the face of  adverse developments in the eurozone. The economy grew by a little over 2% in  2012, notwithstanding continued progress with deleveraging economy-wide.  Macroeconomic imbalances have corrected and inflation and unemployment have  continued to fall. 

 

Iceland has continued to make progress with fiscal consolidation following its  successful completion of a three-year IMF-supported rescue programme in August  2011. Fitch estimates that the general government realised a primary surplus of  2.8% of GDP in 2012, its first since 2007, and a headline deficit of 2.6% of  GDP. Our forecasts suggest that with primary surpluses set to rise to 4.5% of  GDP by 2015, general government balance should be in sight by 2016.

 

In contrast to near rating peers Ireland ('BBB+') and Spain ('BBB'), Iceland's  general government debt/GDP peaked at 101% of GDP in 2011 and now appears to be  set on a downward trajectory, falling to an estimated 96% of GDP in 2012.  Fitch's base case sees debt/GDP falling to 69% by 2021. Net public debt at 65%  of GDP in 2012 is markedly lower than gross debt due to large government  deposits. This also contrasts with Ireland (109% of GDP) and Spain (81% of GDP). Renewed access to international capital markets has allowed Iceland to prepay  55% of its liabilities to the IMF and the Nordic countries.

 

Risks of contingent liabilities migrating from the banking sector to the  sovereign's balance sheet have receded significantly following the favourable  legal judgement on Icesave in January 2013 that could have added up to 19% of  GDP to public debt in a worst case scenario. Meanwhile, progress in domestic  debt restructuring has been reflected by continued falls in commercial banks'  non-performing loans from a peak of 18% in 2010 to 9% by end-2012. Nonetheless,  banks remain vulnerable to the lifting of capital controls, while the financial  position of the sovereign-owned Housing Finance Fund (HFF) is steadily  deteriorating and will need to be addressed over the medium term.

 

Little progress has been made with lifting capital controls and EUR2.3bn of  non-resident ISK holdings remain 'locked in'. However, Fitch estimates that the  legal framework for lifting capital controls will be extended beyond the  previously envisaged expiry at end-2013, thereby reducing the risk of a  disorderly unwinding of the controls. Fitch acknowledges that Iceland's exit  from capital controls will be a lengthy process, given the underlying risks to  macroeconomic stability, fiscal financing and the newly restructured commercial  banks' deposit base. However, the longer capital controls remain in place, the  greater the risk that they will slow recovery and potentially lead to asset  price bubbles in other areas of the economy.

 

Iceland's rating is underpinned by high income per capita levels and by measures of governance, human development and ease of doing business which are more akin  to 'AAA'-rated countries. Rich natural resources, a young population and robust  pension assets further support the rating.

 

RATING SENSITIVITIES

 

The main factors that could lead to a negative rating action are:

 

- Significant fiscal easing that resulted in government debt resuming an upward  trend, or adverse shocks that implied higher government borrowing and debt than  projected

 

- Crystallization of sizeable contingent liabilities arising from the banking  sector. In this regard, the HFF represents the main source of risk.

 

- A disorderly unwinding of capital controls leading to significant capital  outflows a sharp depreciation of the ISK and a resurgence of inflation. 

 

The main factors that could lead to a positive rating action:

 

- Greater clarity about the evolution capital controls and, in particular the  mechanism for releasing offshore krona.

 

- Enduring monetary and exchange rate stability.

 

- Further signs of banking sector stabilisation accompanied by continued  progress of private sector domestic debt restructuring.

 

- Continued reduction in public andexternal debt ratios.

 

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

 

In its debt sensitivity analysis, Fitch assumes a trend real GDP growth rate of  2.5%, GDP deflator of 3.5%, an average primary budget surplus of 3.2% of GDP,  nominal effective interest rate of 6% and an annual depreciation  of 2% (to  capture potential exchange rate pressures resulting from the lifting of capital  controls) over 2012-21. Moreover a recapitalization of HFF equivalent to 0.7% of GDP is assumed in 2013. Under these assumptions, public debt/GDP declines from  its current level to 69% of GDP in 2021. 

 

The debt path is sensitive to growth shocks. Under a growth stress scenario  (0.2% potential growth), public debt would remain on a downward trajectory but  it would stabilise at a markedly higher level (90% of GDP) by 2019. While  Iceland's debt dynamics appears to be resistant to an interest-rate stress  scenario, a sharp deterioration in the exchange rate (possibly associated with a disorderly unwinding of capital controls) would have a more adverse effect.

 

Similarly, a scenario with no fiscal consolidation (primary deficit of 0.3% of  GDP in the medium-term) would reverse the debt downward path: debt would reach  100% of GDP in 2015 and would remain above that level for 2015-21.

 

Fitch assumes that contingent liabilities arising from the banking sector  (mainly through HFF) will be limited. Under a scenario where contingent  liabilities arise due to the recapitalisation of HFF and they account for 4% of  GDP each year from 2014 to 2016, public debt would still remain on a downward  trajectory. However, it would reach 81% of GDP by 2021 (versus 69% under the  baseline).

 

Fitch assumes that capital controls will ultimately be unwound in an orderly  manner.

 

Fitch assumes that the eurozone remains intact and that there is no  materialisation of severe tail risks to global financial stability.

 

(Caryn Trokie, New York Ratings Unit)

 

Krækja

 

Fitch Upgrades Iceland to 'BBB'; Outlook Stable 

 

Fyrri færsla

 

Eyðileggjandi vansköpun í turni Sjálfstæðisflokksins 

 

Athugasemdir

[Samstaða þjóðar, 15.2.2013 kl. 10:24]

Þeir eru margir í valdakerfinu á Íslandi, sem ættu snarlega að segja af sér vegna yfirgengilegrar heimsku. Bjarni Benediktsson og Hörður Árnason eru greinilega í þeim hópi. Hvenær rennur upp dagur landhreinsunar ?

Loftur Altice Þorsteinsson.

[Helga Kristjánsdóttir, 15.2.2013 kl. 11:45]

Vona að ég nái þeim aldri að upplifa það strákar mínir.

[Gunnar Rögnvaldsson, 15.2.2013 kl. 20:55]

Þakka ykkur fyrir

Get eðlilega ekki tekið undir hugtakið "landhreinsun". Íslenska Lýðveldið er heimili okkar allra og saman við stöndum eins og Loftur svo dyggilega hefur unnið að, að megi verða. 

Nóg væri hins vegar að stilla ferðatöskunni upp á vog til að sjá að um svo skelfilega yfirvigt er orðið að ræða í farangrinum að flugvélin mun ekki komast á loft og því síður halda neinu glæstu flugi. Og það eru margir um borð í þessari vél sem bíða eftir því að flughæfnin komist í lag.

Kveðjur